Key Takeaways
- Winterberry raised its 2026 ad spend growth forecast to 12.1%, pushing MediaPost’s composite forecast to 10.3%.
- AI platforms are projected to manage more than 25% of U.S. ad spend by 2030.
- Local advertising could face a tougher 2027 once this year’s political ad spending drops out.
- Amazon is bundling five streaming services through Prime Video for $29.99 per month.
- New video research suggests more clicks do not necessarily mean better ROAS.
- Performance media is becoming more accessible to SMBs, but attribution and incrementality remain major challenges.
Ad Spend Is Growing. So Is the Complexity.
Advertising forecasts are moving up. At the same time, AI is on pace to manage more than a quarter of U.S. ad spend within four years.
This week also brought a new streaming bundle, tighter connections between CTV and lifecycle marketing, and research that gives advertisers another reason to question familiar video metrics.
For smaller brands, these changes are opening doors that once required much bigger budgets. The harder part is knowing what the data actually means.
Featured Segment: How SMBs Are Scaling in the New Performance Media Landscape
This week’s PDMI Take 20 discussion brought together Chris Foster of PostcardMania/PCM Integrations, Sarah Andrea Dacus of Bluewater, Callie Zumdahl of Asset Marketing Services/GovMint, and John Rinaldo of DISH Media.
The conversation focused on how small and mid-sized businesses are navigating performance media as more channels, data, and technology become available.
[VIDEO EMBED: PDMI Take 20 discussion, “How SMBs Are Scaling in the New Performance Media Landscape”]
Video link: PDMI Take 20: SMBs in Performance Media
By the Numbers
| Metric | Figure |
| Local brands running CTV campaigns in 2025 | 51,000, up about 32% vs. 2020 |
| Local CTV impressions outside the top 50 DMAs | About 53% |
| Performance marketers using self-serve platforms like Vibe.co | 12,000+ |
| Starting budgets on some self-serve platforms | Around $50/day |
| SMB owners personally handling marketing | About 60% |
| SMBs with an in-house marketing team | 29% |
| SMBs using a primary marketing agency | About 8% |
| SMBs using an agency specifically for paid search | 20% |
| SMBs using a hybrid in-house/agency model | 15% |
Key Discussion Points
The panel covered a lot of ground, but one point kept coming up: having access to more data and media doesn’t necessarily make either one easier to use.
- More data requires better judgment.
Sarah Dacus noted that marketing teams are far more data-literate than they were five to ten years ago, with AI increasingly helping them interpret performance data. But seeing what happened is different from knowing what to do next.
- Attribution isn’t the same as incrementality.
Platform reporting can show which channel or touchpoint received credit for a conversion. It can’t always tell you whether that spend created profitable business that wouldn’t have happened otherwise.
- No single platform tells the whole story.
Data from walled gardens can’t simply be added together. The panel recommended comparing platform reporting with retail signals and direct-response results to get a clearer picture of performance.
- CTV is becoming more accessible.
DISH Media’s John Rinaldo pointed to first-party subscriber data as the foundation of its addressable and programmatic offerings. Its addressable capabilities date back to 2012, and today there is effectively no minimum spend required to access its inventory.
- “SMB” doesn’t have one definition.
What qualifies as a small or mid-sized business can change significantly by vertical and transaction size. That also changes how those businesses should be approached as advertisers.
- Brand and performance can work together.
Callie Zumdahl described combining “narrative commerce” with direct-response measurement while maintaining a human touch through a roughly 150-person customer concierge team.
- Readiness matters more than budget alone.
Bluewater’s “MOM test,” Money, Operations, and Management, looks at whether a business can generate a reliable signal and act on what it learns rather than judging readiness only by spend.
- CTV measurement is catching up.
Pixel-based exposure tracking and other attribution tools once associated mainly with digital campaigns are increasingly available across streaming, CTV, and linear media.
For SMBs, easier access to performance media is only part of the opportunity. Knowing how to test TV advertising on a smaller budget and what to measure matters just as much.
Ad Spend Forecasts Climb, But Not Evenly
National Forecasts Tick Up
Winterberry has raised its 2026 U.S. ad spend growth projection to 12.1%, nearly three percentage points above its earlier forecast. The revision pushed MediaPost’s composite forecast to 10.3%.
The direction is positive, but the growth is not evenly distributed.
Local Spend’s Political Ad Dependency
Local advertising is benefiting heavily from midterm election campaign spending this year. Without a comparable political cycle in 2027, the market faces a much tougher comparison.
| Metric | Figure |
| Winterberry 2026 ad spend projection | 12.1% |
| MediaPost composite forecast | 10.3% |
| Major local growth driver in 2026 | Midterm political ad spending |
| Local ad outlook for 2027 | Weak without comparable political spend |
This is also why headline forecasts need context. Earlier this year, forecasts ranged from 9.4% to 11.5%, as covered in TelNet’s June performance marketing roundup. Media buyers still need to look at where growth is coming from before deciding where budgets should follow.
AI’s Expanding Role in Media Buying and Content Discovery
AI Platforms Could Manage 25%+ of U.S. Ad Spend by 2030
Industry projections now suggest AI platforms could manage more than 25% of U.S. ad spend by 2030.
That raises a bigger question for advertisers: is this a lasting shift in how media gets bought, or are expectations moving faster than the technology can reliably deliver?
Either way, AI is moving closer to decisions around budget allocation, campaign optimization, and audience targeting.
Agent TiVo: AI Meets Content Discovery on CTV
AI’s role in media is expanding beyond buying and optimization. Agent TiVo combines large language models with TiVo’s existing voice technology, bringing conversational AI into the way viewers find TV and streaming content.
The development puts AI directly into the content-discovery layer. Viewers can search more naturally, while platforms gain another way to shape what audiences find and watch.
| Metric | Figure |
| AI-managed share of U.S. ad spend by 2030 (projected) | 25%+ |
| CTV discovery innovation | Agent TiVo (LLM + voice technology) |
For advertisers, both developments point in the same direction: AI is becoming part of more decisions across the media journey, from how spend is managed to how content is discovered. TelNet has explored that shift in its look at AI and the future of ad measurement, including why greater automation makes understanding what the data actually means even more important.
Streaming Bundling Trend Continues
Inside Amazon’s New 5-Service Bundle
Amazon is bundling AMC+, BritBox, MGM+, PBS Masterpiece, and Starz through Prime Video for $29.99 per month.
Why Bundling Is Back as a Retention Play
After years of unbundling, streaming is starting to re-consolidate. Bringing multiple services under one subscription can simplify the viewer experience while giving platforms another way to improve retention.
For Amazon, the move strengthens Prime Video’s position as an aggregator of aggregators, bringing multiple streaming services together within one platform.
| Bundle | Price |
| AMC+, BritBox, MGM+, PBS Masterpiece, Starz (via Prime Video) | $29.99/month |
For advertisers, bundling could change where audiences spend their streaming time and make CTV buying and measurement even more important when deciding where to put media dollars.
Performance Marketing Gets More Connected and More Scrutinized
Klaviyo x MNTN Connect TV Exposure to Email and SMS
A new Klaviyo and MNTN integration connects CTV exposure more directly with lifecycle marketing.
TV ad exposure data can feed into Klaviyo and trigger an automated email or SMS follow-up. Instead of treating CTV and owned channels as separate campaigns, marketers can use one interaction to shape the next.
The Click-ROAS Disconnect in Video Advertising
Better-connected campaigns also make measurement more important.
Research highlighted in PDMI Weekly found that the most-clicked video ads delivered lower ROAS than the least-clicked ads.
| Video Ad Group | ROAS Result |
| Most-clicked ads | Lower |
| Least-clicked ads | Higher |
The finding challenges a familiar assumption: high engagement does not automatically mean strong business performance.
Clicks can tell marketers whether an ad generated an immediate response. They cannot show, on their own, whether that response came from the right customer or produced profitable revenue.
That brings the week’s conversation back to attribution and incrementality. Surface-level metrics are useful, but only when they connect to the outcome the business actually needs.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the 2026 U.S. ad spend growth forecast?
Winterberry raised its 2026 U.S. ad spend growth forecast to 12.1%, nearly three percentage points above its earlier projection. The revision also pushed MediaPost’s composite forecast to 10.3%. The overall outlook is stronger, although growth varies by channel and market.
How much of U.S. ad spend will AI platforms manage by 2030?
Industry projections suggest AI platforms could manage more than 25% of U.S. ad spend by 2030. The forecast reflects AI’s growing role in media planning, buying, optimization, and campaign execution as platforms automate more decisions traditionally handled by media teams.
Why is local ad spend expected to weaken in 2027?
Local advertising is benefiting from midterm election campaign spending in 2026. Without a comparable political cycle in 2027, those advertising dollars drop out, creating a tougher year-over-year comparison and a weaker outlook for local media spending.
What streaming services are included in Amazon’s new streaming bundle?
Amazon’s new Prime Video bundle includes AMC+, BritBox, MGM+, PBS Masterpiece, and Starz for $29.99 per month. The offer brings five separate streaming services together and reflects the broader return of bundling across an increasingly fragmented streaming market.
How does the Klaviyo-MNTN integration connect TV and email marketing?
The Klaviyo-MNTN integration connects CTV exposure with lifecycle marketing. TV ad exposure data can feed into Klaviyo and help trigger or inform follow-up email and SMS campaigns, allowing marketers to coordinate messaging across television and owned customer channels.
What’s the difference between attribution and incrementality?
Attribution assigns credit for a conversion to specific marketing channels or touchpoints. Incrementality asks whether the marketing activity actually caused additional results that would not have happened otherwise. Strong attribution numbers therefore do not automatically mean a campaign created profitable new business.
Does a higher video ad click rate mean better ROAS?
Not necessarily. Research highlighted in PDMI Weekly found that the most-clicked video ads delivered lower ROAS than the least-clicked ads. Click-through rate measures engagement, but revenue performance also depends on audience quality, purchase intent, conversion, and the economics behind each sale.
Ready to Turn These Trends Into Strategy?
Ad spend is rising, AI is taking on more of the media-buying process, and once-separate channels are becoming easier to connect.
But this week’s developments also show why the easiest metric to see is not always the one that matters most. Forecasts need context. Clicks need revenue. Attribution needs incrementality.
TelNet helps brands connect media, measurement, and execution around real business outcomes. Connect with the TelNet team to turn the latest shifts in performance media into a strategy built around your brand.
